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A second Trump administration could place $1T in clean energy investment at risk and delay peak fossil fuel demand by 10 years beyond current forecasts, according to a report issued this week from energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie.
While a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act enacted during the Biden presidency is unlikely, a second Trump term could bring changes to environmental rules and executive orders adopted during the last four years that would roll back many of Biden’s environmental policies, according to the analysis.
Wood Mackenzie projects ~$7.7T in spending for the U.S. energy sector during 2023-50 under current policies, which could be slashed by $1T if policy support is reduced for low carbon energy and infrastructure improvements.
The report forecasts the total stock of electric vehicles would be 50% lower by 2050 than under current policies since automakers presumably would boost investments in hybrid production over EVs.
Less spending on low carbon energy also could lead to increased demand for natural gas, which Wood Mackenzie says could boost its forecast by 6% or 6B cf/day by 2030.
Wood Mackenzie also noted the need to address the U.S. debt – projected by the Congressional Budget Office to climb to 109% of GDP by 2030 and 155% by 2050 – could limit government spending.
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